Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
