Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
